Major Crash in Bitcoin: Fears of Dropping to $60,000 Following $2 Billion in Liquidations

One of the most significant factors behind the selling pressure is the shift in expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, released on November 10, showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, exceeding market expectations. Following strong employment figures, higher-than-expected inflation prompted investors to price in a greater probability of an interest rate hike in December. The US Dollar Index rising above the 103 level also created an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on November 13 showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, below expectations of 0.4%. However, annual PPI climbed to 6.5%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Consequently, the slowdown in monthly producer inflation was insufficient to eliminate concerns about interest rates. If the Federal Reserve maintains restrictive monetary policy or introduces additional rate hikes, Bitcoin and other non-yielding assets could become less attractive compared with alternative investment instruments.

Research published by Coinbase Institutional on November 13 and prepared by senior quantitative strategist Colin Basco indicates that monetary policy expectations are a fundamental driver of the decline. According to the report, futures markets were pricing in approximately 64 basis points of cumulative interest rate increases over the next 12 months. At the beginning of the month, the same expectation stood at 37 basis points. Basco argued that the Binance security incident on October 30 provided a convenient explanation for the downturn, but Federal Reserve-related pressure was a more decisive factor in the latest wave of selling.

What Do Billions in Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reveal?

Institutional investment products that played an important role in Bitcoin's previous rallies have become a notable source of pressure during the current downturn. According to a November 14 report by The Block citing SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.07 billion in net outflows during the latest trading week. This marked the second consecutive week in which the funds experienced net withdrawals exceeding $1 billion. Total outflows across seven consecutive trading days reached $1.91 billion.

On Friday, November 13 alone, approximately $185.5 million was withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $143.5 million in net outflows, while Fidelity's FBTC experienced withdrawals of $41.9 million. Total outflows over the previous two weeks reached approximately $2.35 billion. These figures indicate that demand through Bitcoin ETFs has been insufficient to offset selling pressure as the cryptocurrency's price continues to decline.

The impact of ETF outflows on Bitcoin extends beyond the volume of assets sold. Withdrawals from investment funds can be interpreted as a sign that institutional investors are reducing their exposure to risk. However, it would be inaccurate to conclude that all outflows reflect long-term investors completely abandoning Bitcoin. Portfolio rebalancing, hedging strategies, and short-term capital requirements can also influence ETF flows.

Coinbase Institutional's assessment suggests that the problem may be connected to a broader contraction in liquidity. The research indicated that the combined supply of USDT, USDC, and DAI had declined by $11.5 billion over the previous 30 days. A contraction in stablecoin supply suggests that the amount of capital available to support buying activity in the cryptocurrency market is weakening. For Bitcoin to regain strength, selling pressure must not only ease, but fresh buying demand must also emerge.

Nearly $2 Billion in Liquidations Accelerate Bitcoin's Decline

One of the most important technical factors behind the sharp market decline is the forced closure of leveraged positions. According to market reports published on November 15 citing CoinGlass data, cryptocurrency liquidations over a 24-hour period reached approximately $2 billion. Around $774 million of that amount involved Bitcoin positions, while $488 million came from Ethereum positions. Most of the liquidations affected long positions opened by traders expecting prices to rise.

The liquidation mechanism helps explain why price declines can accelerate on their own. When traders open leveraged long positions and their collateral becomes insufficient, exchanges automatically close those positions. These forced closures can generate additional selling pressure. If the price then falls to another liquidation level, a chain reaction can develop as more positions are closed. Price movements can become particularly severe during weekends when market liquidity is relatively thin.

Rick Maeda, Head of Markets at Laevitas, a company specializing in cryptocurrency derivatives markets, told The Block that the selloff displayed characteristics of a leverage-driven event. According to Maeda, Bitcoin first lost support at $72,000 before falling below $70,000. The rapid liquidation of long positions concentrated around these levels intensified the decline.

A high volume of liquidations does not necessarily mean that the market has reached a bottom. The removal of leveraged positions can help the market establish a new equilibrium. However, if spot buying demand remains weak, selling may continue even after the liquidations subside. For this reason, open interest, funding rates, and trading volume should be evaluated together.

Experts Warn of Critical Risks and Diverging Bitcoin Scenarios

Blockchain analyst James Check stated in an assessment on November 14 that Bitcoin had entered a historically significant valuation zone. According to CoinDesk, Check described the current selloff as Bitcoin's fourth major capitulation event since its most recent peak. The analyst explained that a substantial portion of investors selling at a loss had missed opportunities to purchase Bitcoin at lower prices and subsequently entered the market above $80,000.

Check believes Bitcoin has returned to a deep-value zone previously observed in February and June 2026. He also pointed out that similar conditions emerged toward the end of 2022. However, the analyst specifically emphasized that current price levels cannot be considered a confirmed market bottom. Although this assessment may be interpreted as a positive signal from a long-term valuation perspective, it does not mean that additional short-term losses are impossible.

Martin Lee, Head of Market Insights at DWF Labs, offered a more cautious assessment of the technical outlook. Speaking to CryptoPotato, Lee identified Bitcoin's decline below its 50-week moving average, located around $75,000, as an important sign of weakness. He warned that losing the 200-week moving average near $68,000 could send the price toward $60,000. Bitcoin's decline to approximately $62,000 on November 15 indicates that a significant portion of the downside risk highlighted by the analyst has already materialized.

Lacie Zhang, Head of Research at Bitget Wallet, also emphasized the need to assess macroeconomic uncertainty, spot ETF outflows, leveraged position liquidations, and weakness in technology stocks together. In Zhang's November 14 analysis, $65,000 and $62,000 were identified as support levels following $68,000. With these levels having been tested, whether Bitcoin can defend $60,000 has become increasingly important.

Meanwhile, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at ViaBTC, pointed out that high inflation does not always have a one-directional impact on Bitcoin. According to Ko, persistent inflation could support Bitcoin's long-term appeal as a hedge against monetary depreciation. However, this argument does not eliminate the short-term liquidity pressure caused by high interest rates. Therefore, Bitcoin's long-term investment thesis and its short-term price movements should be assessed separately.

Why Is the $60,000 Support Level Critical for Bitcoin?

The loss of Bitcoin's 200-day moving average near $73,000 represented an important technical breakdown. The subsequent decline below $70,000, $68,000, and $65,000 strengthened sellers' control over price action. In a November 13 analysis, CoinDesk also noted that the weekly MACD indicator was moving into negative territory. If this condition persists at the weekly close, it could generate another technical signal confirming bearish momentum.

Technical scenarios published by Coinbase Institutional on November 13 identified the $66,000-$68,000 range as an important support zone, followed by $62,000 and $58,000-$59,000. However, Bitcoin's decline to $62,112 over the weekend means the first support area may now be regarded as a short-term resistance zone. If the cryptocurrency fails to establish sustained support around $62,000, the psychologically important $60,000 level could come back into focus.

Market assessments based on Glassnode data have highlighted a concentration of potential liquidation levels between $59,500 and $62,600. Sharp price fluctuations within this range could trigger further closures of remaining leveraged positions. If Bitcoin falls below $60,000, the $58,000-$59,000 region could become the next technical area to monitor. These levels should not be interpreted as guaranteed price targets or definitive buying opportunities.

In a bullish scenario, reclaiming $65,000 could provide one of the first indications of a recovery. A stronger improvement would require Bitcoin to return to the $66,000-$68,000 range and establish sustained support there. A move above $70,000 could strengthen short-term confidence. However, unless Bitcoin recovers the $73,000-$75,000 region, rallies may remain limited to temporary relief bounces rather than marking the beginning of a sustained upward trend.

Kriptofoni's Assessment: How Much Longer Could Bitcoin Continue Falling?

The latest wave of selling in the Bitcoin market can be viewed as the result of several negative developments reinforcing one another. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes strengthened the US dollar, while capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs weakened institutional demand. The contraction in stablecoin supply limited the amount of liquidity available to enter the market. Meanwhile, leveraged position liquidations triggered by the breakdown of technical support levels made the decline even more severe.

Secondary risks are also contributing to market pressure. Increased uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency regulations following the US midterm elections, developments related to Nvidia weighing on technology stocks, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are weakening investors' willingness to take risks. In addition, MSCI's decision to remove Strategy shares from its indices introduced further uncertainty regarding institutional investment expectations for Bitcoin-linked companies. However, it is not possible to determine the exact contribution of each of these developments to Bitcoin's price decline.

In the short term, the most important factor for Bitcoin will be its price behavior around $62,000. If this level is lost, attention will shift toward $60,000, followed by the $58,000-$59,000 range. Under a recovery scenario, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $65,000, while ETF outflows would have to slow and liquidation activity would need to ease. Economic data released ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 8-9 meeting could also reshape market expectations regarding interest rates.

James Check's assessment of Bitcoin entering a deep-value zone is noteworthy for investors focused on the cryptocurrency's long-term potential. However, the weakening technical outlook and shrinking liquidity continue to leave open the possibility of Bitcoin testing lower price levels. For a sustainable rally to emerge, the perception that Bitcoin has become inexpensive will not be sufficient on its own. Strong buying demand capable of absorbing selling pressure and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions will also be necessary.

The current situation demonstrates that Bitcoin is closely connected not only to developments within the cryptocurrency market but also to interest rates, liquidity conditions, and investor risk appetite across the global financial system. In the coming days, the battle around $60,000 will be one of the most important developments determining whether the ongoing market correction deepens further.